Who goes down in the First Four, and who dances all the way to New Orleans? Here are my bracket predictions, counting down from Game 1 to Game 67. A quick note: after the First Four I’ll count down based on my confidence on the pick.
68. Mississippi Valley State-Sorry, Delta Devils. They’re a great story, and it would be fun to see Mississippi Valley State coach and UK hero Sean Woods take on the ‘Cats in the 1/16 matchup. But I just don’t have faith in a team that only beat one team not in the paltry SWAC all season. They succumb Tuesday night, 68-59.
67. BYU-Many eyebrows were raised at Iona’s inclusion in the field of 68, and while the Gaels might not have had the resume to earn a bid, they can play. The trio of Scott Machado, MoMo Jones and Michael Glover will be too much for an underwhelming BYU squad. The Cougars fall in a shootout, 91-84.
66. Vermont-After Pat Knight laid into his seniors following an abominable shooting performance against Southland foe Stepen F. Austin, Lamar has won 6 straight. Although Knight has said he doesn’t think his rant is responsible for the turnaround, obviously something’s clicking for his Cardinals. Mike James, among the seniors who took the heat from Knight, leads Lamar over Vermont, 66-62.
65. South Florida-I was thrilled to see Stan Heath’s team get into the Tournament. The Bulls are a great story and are among the nation’s elite defensive squads. But I love the Cal backcourt of Jorge Gutierrez, Allen Crabbe and Justin Cobbs. Gutierrez is a feisty senior who won’t go down without a fight. The Golden Bears prevail, 60-56.
64. Western Kentucky-The Hilltoppers have been on a tear, and considering where they were a month ago (5-9 in the Sun Belt, 9-18 overall), just being here is a huge accomplishment. But one of the nation’s worst offensive squads won’t have any fun taking on Kentucky. The Wildcats knock off their in state rivals, 81-53.
63. Norfolk State-Even though they finished second in the MEAC in the regular season, Norfolk State is a much more dangerous opponent than regular season champ Savannah State. The Spartans only lost to Marquette by 2 on a neutral floor, and knocked off Drexel, TCU and Long Island out of conference. So why are they 63? Their opponent, Missouri, doesn’t tend to let inferior teams stick around. The Tigers wreak havoc and cruise to a 89-60 victory.
62. Lamar-No, Lamar wasn’t going to keep winning just because of Pat Knight’s tirade. North Carolina is a step up from the competition the Cardinals saw in the Southland Conference. Don’t expect to see much of John Henson, as Roy Williams will probably try to preserve his star for the second round matchup (I refuse to call the first two rounds the “second and third rounds”. The First Four isn’t a round. Period.) Tar Heels, 79-59.
61. Loyola (MD)-The Greyhounds are a great story. Jimmy Patsos revitalized the program after over a decade of losing and saw his work pay off with Loyola’s second ever Tournament appearance. Unfortunately, they’re running into an Ohio State team that’s clicking at the right time. Buckeyes coast to a second round appearance, 74-55.
60. UNC-Asheville-This isn’t the easiest 16 seed to deal with. They’ve been here before, winning the play-in game last year. They played a tough schedule, taking on NC State, North Carolina, Connecticut and Tennessee in the regular season. Only the Heels beat them by more than 10 (and it was only 16). Most damning for Syracuse, Matt Dickey and JP Primm can light it up from outside, something the Cuse has struggled with this year. However, this is still a 1/16 game, and Syracuse is still Syracuse. The Orange shrug off a pesky Asheville team in the second half, 88-71.
59. Lehigh-It’s just plain silly to bet against Duke in the Tournament playing in their home state. The Blue Devils have about a one hour bus ride to get to Greensboro. That being said, Duke hasn’t exactly been all that good as of late. The Devils got creamed by North Carolina at home and struggled with Virginia Tech (twice) and Wake Forest. To make matters worse, they have to deal with CJ McCollum, who dropped 56 in the Patriot League semis and finals. It won’t be as easy as “2 seed Duke plays a home game in the Tournament” implies. But Coach K’s crew gets it done, 74-61.
58. Long Island-The Blackbirds can light it up (3rd in the nation with 82 points a game) and have the size inside to hang with the Branden Dawson-less Spartans. But again, I don’t think I’ll leave to see the day where I think a 16 over 1 is actually plausible. The high flying Julian Boyd and savvy floor leader Jason Brickman make Long Island a fun team to watch, and this might be worth tuning into for a while. But ultimately, Sparty is up to the challenge. I like State, 80-68.
57. Belmont-A popular upset pick, why are the Bruins my first 14 seed going home? Matchup, matchup, matchup. Remember what happened when seemingly everyone was picking Belmont over Wisconsin last year? The Badgers methodical style frustrated Rick Byrd’s run’n'gun crew. Georgetown is almost as slow as Wisconsin, and big men Henry Sims and Otto Porter are playing their best ball of the season. The Hoyas are up to this challenge, and I like them to win 77-64.
56. Colorado State-Colorado State was the first half of this year’s “how the hell is THAT their RPI?!” club. The Rams are, quite frankly, terrible away from home, only beating Air Force and…nope, just Air Force away from Fort Collins in MWC play this year. There isn’t really much to see here. An efficient offensive team, the Rams struggled on defense at times this year. I have been far from the Murray State bandwagon this year, but I can’t imagine the Racers dropping this one, especially in Louisville. Isaiah Canaan has a field day and Murray races to the second round, 77-63.
55. Davidson-Last time they were in the Tournament, Bob McKillop’s Wildcats made the Elite Eight. Last time they were in the Tournament, they also had Stephen Curry. The only team to knock off Kansas at the Phog this year barely beat lowly Western Carolina in the Southern Conference final. I just don’t like their chances to knock off a Louisville team that just reeled off four straight to win the Big East. Cardinals over Wildcats, 78-64.
54. Harvard-Most were shocked to see Harvard wind up with a 12 seed after being a fringe top 25 team all season, but the Committee got it right. Harvard couldn’t be more unimposing, winning 6 of their 12 conference games by single digits against decidedly inferior competition. And that win over Florida State feels like forever ago because, well, it WAS forever ago. Vanderbilt is playing with confidence and swagger, and I don’t think they struggle with Tommy Amaker’s Crimson. Harvard’s return trip to the Big Dance for the first time since 1946 is short lived, as the ‘Dores take care of business, 68-52.
53. Southern Miss-Introducing you to the other half of the “how the hell is THAT their RPI?!” club. The Golden Eagles best wins are over Memphis and Colorado State, so I highly doubt they beat an opponent I consider better than the best teams Southern Miss has beaten all year in Kansas State. Frank Martin’s glare alone would have a chance against Larry Eustachy’s crew. I’ll take the Wildcats without a second thought, 70-55.
52. New Mexico State-Much is being made of the upset potential for New Mexico State over Indiana. After all, the Aggies did pit rival New Mexico at The Pit earlier this year. Why is this an easy selection for me then? No one mentions the 20 point blowout the Lobos handed their rivals in the second meeting, and State failed to beat Nevada in WAC play. There really isn’t much else that suggests they can hang with the Hoosiers. But keep an eye out for big man Wendell McKines. He’s good for 20 and 10 a night and can shoot the three. Good test for Cody Zeller, but Indiana gets it done, 88-77.
51. Montana-Montana is a popular upset pick over Wisconsin. I’m admittedly a huge Wisconsin fan, but I give this one almost no chance of falling the Grizzlies’ way. The two mid-majors Wisconsin has lost to in the Tournament under Bo Ryan have been Davidson and Cornell. You know, Stephen Curry? The criminally underseeded Big Red? And no, Xavier, Butler and UNLV don’t count as mid-majors. That isn’t even mentioning Bo’s 9-1 first round record. Yes, I guess Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar could get hot and the Badgers could struggle offensively. But I just don’t see it, not with the Badgers’ stalwart defense. Wisconsin prevails with big days from Josh Gasser and Jared Berggren, 68-58.
50. South Dakota State-It kills me to do this, but I can’t justify having the Jackrabbits knock off Baylor in the first round. Being a white kid from a rural town in the Midwest, it’s hard for me to root against a basketball team full of, well, white kids from rural towns in the Midwest. And I do believe the Jacks will make it a fun one, just like conference mate North Dakota State did against Kansas in a 3/14 game four years ago. But Nate Wolters and Co. don’t have the size down low to compete with Perry Jones III, Quincy Acy and Quincy Miller. It will be close for a half, but the Bears pull away late, 81-68.
49. Detroit-Not your conventional 15 seed. Detroit suffered single digit road losses to Tournament teams Notre Dame and Alabama in the non conference schedule. They are firing on all cylinders, winners of 10 of their last 11 and fresh off a 20 point statement win over Horizon League regular season champ Valparaiso. Oh yeah, that was on the road. Led by Ray McCallum, the coach’s son who is almost an extension of his father on the floor as well as a tremendous player, and big man Eli Holman who called out Thomas Robinson this week, the Titans are coming to play. Throw in upset prone Kansas and this looks like it could happen. But even if Holman handles Thomas Robinson (and my guess is, he struggles) Jeff Withey is playing his best ball of the season. Jayhawks advance, but it isn’t easy. 70-61.
48. Iona-Iona is this year’s VCU in that they are a mid-major who may have undeservedly got a bid, but have a chance to do something with it. They aren’t this year’s VCU because this team is not going to New Orleans. I love the Gaels and the three headed monster that is Machado, Jones and Glover, but Marquette can play Iona’s style. Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom have been here before. Those senior leaders won’t let the Golden Eagles lose, and they advance to the second round, 84-75.
47. St. Bonaventure-Andrew Nicholson is a name every college basketball fan should familiarize him/herself with. Nicholson had a near triple double in the Atlantic 10 final with points, rebounds and…blocks? He played with an intensity that suggests the Bonnies won’t be an easy out. Florida State is fresh off an ACC Championship and everyone is in love with them at the moment. They went 4-1 against Duke and North Carolina, what’s not to love? Well, they were 1-4 against Boston College, Clemson, and the Ivy League. I’m just not enamored with the Seminoles, and St. Bonaventure is on a run of its own. That said, Leonard Hamilton’s squad can do enough to keep playing. 58-51, ‘Noles.
46. Xavier-Where did that Atlantic 10 title game run come from? Ever since the infamous brawl in the Cincinnati game, Xavier has looked uninspired and has rarely played as a team. With back to back wins over Dayton and St. Louis, though, the Musketeers reminded us just how good they can be. But did those two games prove they could be trusted to put it together for the NCAA Tournament? The safe bet here is no, and that’s why I’ve got Notre Dame penciled in to the second round, 70-60. But if XU decides to play its best basketball…watch out, Duke.
45. Colorado-Really happy for the Buffaloes. Tad Boyle’s team had the most legitimate gripe that they belonged in the Tournament last year, and I personally had them in my field of 68. That being said, there is no Alec Burks this year, and this Colorado team isn’t as good as it was last year. UNLV has struggled away from the Thomas & Mack Center this year, but you can’t deny the talent of guys like Mike Moser and Chace Stanback. The Runnin’ Rebels head to round 2, 78-66.
44. VCU-I hate that I have to do this. The Rams have won 18 of 19 and that Final Four appearance is still fresh on everyone’s minds. The thing is, the CAA just isn’t very good this year, so that winning streak isn’t as impressive as it would have been in years past. And they’re playing my adopted second favorite team for the Tournament: Gregg Marshall’s Wichita State Shockers. Marshall’s senior led squad is awesome on offense, awesome on defense, and just doesn’t really have any weaknesses. That loss to Illinois State in the Missouri Valley semifinals might have been a good thing; they’ll have a chip on their shoulders coming into March Madness. I love the Rams, I just love the Shockers more. Wichita, 77-67.
43. Texas-The Longhorns certainly have the talent to make a deep run in the Tournament. Being seeded as an 11 doesn’t change the fact that this squad is loaded. But to me, this game comes down to one thing. Cincinnati’s Yancy Gates is playing his best basketball of the season, and Texas lacks a true low post force to stop him. I expect to see at least 20 from Gates, and J’Covan Brown’s late game heroics won’t be enough. The Bearcats move on to the second round, 67-60.
42. Saint Mary’s-The Gaels really got a tough draw with Purdue in Omaha. Robbie Hummel is finally leaving college basketball, and you know one of college basketball’s brightest stars over the last five years won’t go easily. Saint Mary’s’ third leading scorer Stephen Holt hasn’t played in the last five games, and his status for the Tournament is up in the air, although we can probably expect to see him. Even still, it’s hard to imagine the Boilers dropping a very winnable game as the sendoff for Hummel. His long career continues. 71-62, Boilermakers.
41. Connecticut-There’s a lot of talk about the “dream” second round matchup between Connecticut and Kentucky, and lost in the fray is UConn’s first round opponent. Iowa State, for some reason, is being ignored. The Cyclones play a fun brand of basketball, led by point forward Royce White. Coached by Iowa State legend Fred Hoiberg, this team is cresting at the right time, just one week removed from pummeling Baylor in an impressive comeback to end the regular season. Connecticut is not the same team that won the national title last year. Shabazz Napier looks like the only one on this team who really cares about winning, and Jeremy Lamb is much more suited to play second fiddle than lead the Huskies deep into March. So for everyone wanting that Connecticut-Kentucky game, I don’t think it’s happening. Iowa State wins, 78-72.
40. Long Beach State-See what I wrote about VCU. It pains me to see the 49ers go up against New Mexico in round one. I really, really like both of these teams, and in a different region (I’m looking at you, Midwest) I could see Beach advancing to the Sweet 16. But with Larry Anderson listed as a game time decision and New Mexico fresh off an impressive run through the MWC Tournament, things don’t bode well for Dan Monson’s squad. If there is one first round game I’ll be tuning into (other than watching my Badgers) it’s this one. Give me the Lobos, 77-71.
39. Virginia-On paper, this is an easy one for Florida. Virginia’s a slow, plodding team who had a pretty underwhelming regular season, while Florida’s roster includes future NBA players Brad Beal and Patric Young, not to mention most seem to think they got screwed by receiving a 7 by the Selection Committee. But Virginia’s defensive emphasis and slow pace may make it hard for streaky shooters like Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton to find a rhythm. Those guys can put up points in a hurry, but they can also shoot their team out of a game. Still, I think the Gators have too much talent. Florida, 68-62.
38. NC State-NC State is a very popular Sweet 16 pick, but I’m not really sure why. This team was left for dead a week ago, and then…everybody started losing. Now the Wolfpack are a trendy upset pick. Why? I don’t buy this team, and I don’t think they can knock off a San Diego State team that’s better than anyone NC State has beaten all year, and it isn’t like they haven’t had their chances. Give me the Aztecs, 71-63.
37. Gonzaga-Seems like the Committee gave a giant middle finger to the WCC this year. BYU went to the play-in as a 14, and Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga get 10 seeds with decisive home court advantages. The Zags get West Virginia in Pittsburgh, and even though the Mountaineers are a two trick pony with Kevin Jones and Truck Bryant, I like that location too much to give Gonzaga the win. West Virginia moves on, 73-69.
36. Saint Louis-It was only a matter of time before the Billikens went dancing. Rick Majerus has had the good fortune of retaining his core players for two years, and this talented group finally broke through. That being said, they draw Memphis, one of the hottest teams in the country and one that has the talent to be in the top 10. Undisciplined at times, the Tigers still have enough to knock off Saint Louis. I’ll take Memphis, but barely. 66-63.
35. Alabama-Offense meets defense when the Crimson Tide face Creighton in round one. Anthony Grant made one of the most honorable coaching decisions of the year when he suspended arguably his four best players for conduct detrimental to the team. The team responded and navigated the end of the season well enough to make the Tournament. They did not, however, earn a favorable draw, getting a Jays team that is on fire and led by arguably the nation’s best scorer in Doug McDermott. This will be an interesting game, and I’d call it a toss up. If ‘Bama neutralizes McDermott and his teammates can’t step up, the Tide could roll. If McDermott heats up, it’ll be an early trip back to Tuscaloosa for Alabama. I think the game leans more towards the latter of the two. Creighton 70, Alabama 62.
34. Temple-Much like Harvard, Temple wasn’t convincing in games against teams like La Salle or George Washington late in the season. I love the guard play of Ramone Moore, Khalif Wyatt and Juan Fernandez. But I also really like Cal, and they counter with the aforementioned trio of Crabbe, Gutierrez and Cobbs. I think this one comes down to the wire, but I like the Golden Bears. 78-76.
33. Michigan-Look at Michigan’s performance in their last six games. Uninspiring wins over Northwestern, Penn State, Illinois and Minnesota, and blowout losses to Purdue and Ohio State. I’ve gotten the sense all year that Tim Hardaway Jr. is reluctant to recognize Trey Burke as the team’s best player (which he clearly is). Hardaway was supposed to be the guy after Darius Morris went pro, so you’ve got a guy who wants to be the alpha dog but isn’t, and a guy who doesn’t necessarily want to be the alpha dog, but is. Meanwhile, they face an Ohio team that features a guy who’s been there before in DJ Cooper. Remember, Ohio crushed Georgetown two years ago as a 14 seed. Walter Offutt, the team’s second leading scorer, is an Ohio State transfer, so he too has been around winning culture. This all points to the upset, and it’s the only 13 over 4 I feel has a legitimate chance at happening this year. Ohio moves on, 77-72.
FINAL 32 EXPLANATIONS COMING SOON!!!!!!!
32. Ohio
31. West Virginia
30. Memphis
29. Purdue
28. Notre Dame
27. Murray State
26. Kansas State
25. Iowa State
24. Florida
23. Creighton
22. UNLV
21. Louisville
20. San Diego State
19. Florida State
18. Indiana
17. Vanderbilt
16. California
15. Cincinnati
14. Georgetown
13. Duke
12. Wichita State
11. Wisconsin
10. Marquette
9. Michigan State
8. Baylor
7. Kansas
6. Missouri
5. Syracuse
4. New Mexico
3. Ohio State
2. North Carolina
1. Kentucky
VERMONT
ST. BONAVENTURE
Drexel
OHIO
